@ExisedI just check the Cadia dam collapse, April 2018, didn't make much of a dent in the SP so hindsight is a great tool. Ultimately I suspect the price of an indirect gold play (producers) are not what the bulk of retail money thinks but what the major gold etf funds do with their excess liquidity pumped in or redemption. This is a product of the economic activity, yield V not much and so forth. Going by a few CR/SPP of late and measuring apples to oranges, there will be further reaction to this news and with SPP coming up, opportunistic Instos will be taking scalping advantages ahead of the SPP allocations I think.
@eshmunPrediction is a futile exercise because under historical conditions the behavior of gold is different to the current new reality of QE/cheap money. It has obscured current Economic models taught at Uni as it evolved and I have not found anyone explaining it under the current models besides the MMT version. I don;t even know how gold will perform under recessionary pressures besides CB globally will QE to death until they find more revolutionary tools through policies of which I think there is discussions of negative IR! My version which is simplistic is that as yield chasing is forced on the investor, stockmarket is the only place. The herd goes in hard then usually on some event trigger they sell first and ask Q later as we saw this time last year. The cycle repeats itself. These volatility driven events of which trade tensions is top of the trigger points drives the herd from risk asset class to safety (gold, USD, bonds) then when Trump thinks his rhetoric is causing a tipping point in stockmarket, he dials down and the herd moves back to risk.
I agree that this is looking like the 2010-11 style aiming for throughput (revenue) at the expense of quality (grades) because on current XAUAUD, everything is on great margins. Can the AUD reverse and recover to the heights of parity to USD? I have my doubts but I don't think I am clever than the markets. I am just taking the view that there is current correlations between gold and equity markets because of the common denominator that money has very little yield in the fix deposit.
