Yep. Valuation models assume the market has been valuing GAS correctly, and valuing TEG, relative to GAS correctly. They also assume the past volatility will be relative to future volatility on the assumption the business is continuing in a similar fashion, or at least information regarding probable outcomes has been available over that time. The argument can be made, at a stretch, that these assumptions are valid. I don't think so.
Also consider the volume of shares one needed to hold to now be able to sell a volume of options for a marketable parcel. And the value one's paid for those options versus your original holding. ie. If someone's got 1m options to sell on market, they will have just paid $1,000 for them and their TEG cost base is likely >$250k. Is someone with that sort of stake in TEG really going to be interested in making $1,000 profit day 1 to forgo the upside possible over the next 9mths?
All in all, I'm expecting most people to bottom drawer their options unless someone is willing to put up a decent premium. My gut says at least 0.005.
TEG Price at posting:
5.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
