I can't see that there's any way of maintaining dividends at current level which is 50c a year. They have over 1B shares so 50c is over $500M dividend payout which is effectively 100% of NPAT.
NPAT is likely to be less than $100M this HY so even if they pay out 100% again (which they suggest they intend to do) it's still going to be less than 10c compared to 20c last HY. Personally I am forecasting about 7c div and hoping that a coal price recovery in 2H will pull the full year div up to 15-20c.
This stock at these prices is a coal price recovery play. If the NEWC price heads back to US$100 in 2H then WHC will head back to $5. If NEWC drops much more from here it will head sub-$2 IMO. I don't try to forecast the short term movements but I think over the mid term there is more upside risk than downside, particularly as OPEC seem determined to keep the Brent oil price above $60, which supports thermal coal outlook.
WHC Price at posting:
$2.64 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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