SEA 0.00% 16.5¢ sundance energy australia limited

How can i sell SEA.AX and get money back?, page-41

  1. 11,061 Posts.
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    do I have too?

    From Sundance Energy Investor Presentation (SNDE on the NasDAQ) ... their first
    https://sundanceenergy.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Sundance_December-Corporate-Presentation_Final.pdf

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/1882/1882658-6728844a99b194956a4286f7473cc152.jpg

    I think this is the number we need to compare to
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/1882/1882664-942e68658af40f1d3e60b54da5c8c49f.jpg
    but that was at SEC pricing as at Dec 31 and not the flat deck of $55 oil and $2.75 gas that LONE provided.
    But I hunted that down for you

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/1882/1882679-635fd736d2bc3a98959d71d347b6107e.jpg

    This is important and easily overlooked

    So compare PV10 of $1,335.8M for LONE to PV of $1,110 for SEA
    So subtract away the debt ($460M total inc WC adjustments for LONE) leaves $875M for LONE
    And then on fully diluted basis 40M shares (i.e. converting all the preference shares ) gives about $22/share vs current share $2.20 or a 90% discount to SEC PV10

    And how does SNDE compare?
    PV10 of $1,110M
    Less Debt of $365M
    leaves $745M and with ~6.876M shares thats about $11 share .... or about $108/share
    and at $15/share that is an approximate 86% discount.

    Tells me a couple of things
    1) SEC PV10 is way, way, way, way overstating asset value and why we see such a disconnect between the share & asset price
    2. SNDE and LONE are being valued in the same relative way

    But hey what's in a few numbers.

    Rock on higher oil prices



 
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