yeap so use a ebitdax multiple of 4
SEA in 2020 i say about 180 ebitdax x 4 less net debt = 370 = sp 55c
on 17500 boepd and oil pricing nicely and energy in general coming back into favour (if) then we might see at best 200 ebitdax and multiple of 5 = sp around 95c - lets take 1/2 way of around 50$ snde - 3xtoday
thus buying today would suggest not a bad payoff if all things fall into place and then the redom is good because either way the price in past 2 weeks has been dirt cheap in any ones language allowing avr. cost (in my case) to look very reasonable at moment after buying a few snde and a few sea at 14c and 28c prior.
One thing i dont like abt sea management at moment is that they not that honest to small shldrs - they used flaring as an excuse this year and made up some cockamania story about capacity but if you look at indudstry in whole then flaring went up alot all over the place - so they need to start being a whole lot more transparent and detailed - just one eg.
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