tim versus timpb

i continue to be confused and amazed with strength of tim and weakness timpb. maybe it will come good next year but long timpb short 68% tim on cfd at today's prices gives risk free return for tim greater than 16 cents; max return is 85% at tim=50 cents; on upside, share can be anything and trade is positive. only loses if cash payout in sep09 and tim greater than $2.05 (unlikely imho)