Weirdest Stock on the ASX., page-33

Not possible to short sell AKP as there's no shares being lent.

It all comes down to 2 numbers: the probability of success (developing a working chip) and the valuation in the case of success.

Given current mkt cap of 500m, and a valuation of $2bn if the chip works ($0 if not), market is giving a 25% chance they succeed. Using other valuations:
$500m: market gives 100% chance of success
$1b: 50%
$2b: 25%
$5b: 10%
$10b: 5%
$50b: 1%
$500b (what some people here believe!): 0.1%

This doesn't take into account future cap raisings related to further inevitable delays, and additional investment needed for production in the case of success etc. All of these lower the valuation (and increase the implied probability).