AAM Research Piece, page-33

It actually make more sense for the big boys, as they have even less financing constraints and a much lower cost of capital. What were the NPV projections of ATC again? I know no 'big boy' big enough to sneeze at that, not even a Sumitomo. Or take a Norsk Hydro who have indicated that they want to invest in HPA, for who this is a strategic priority. So why is management getting nothing done?

I am trying to understand why there is a disconnect between 'the story' (that truly sounds fantasctic) and "the actual" (all talk and nothing to show). If something does not add up there is an opportunity, either money to make, or a loss to avoid. So when marketing conflicts with common sense reasoning, I investigate. And I surely do not have all the knowlegde, so I lay this in front of my peers.

I don't mind risk. Always looking for opportunities. But I do dislike throwing bad money after good. By the way, there is nothing without zero risk. Well, almost nothing, somethimes you run across an international tax arbitrage that is truly free money.

I looked at this stock, and had a position, some time ago (2015? 2016?), but got out when there was a sequence of events that felt all wrong: Iggy Tan selling shares into the market to "pay tax bills related to those shares" (well actually he did not put them into a trust to pay tax, so no I don't think so), without prewarning ditching their previous EPC partner, and then totally blowing out capex with the next one. I thought it wiser to stay on the sidelines and wait for real financing to materialize. At some point in time when they have tapped retail enough, bit by bit, to finance the equity part in a stealthy way, they might get it done. But even then I'd like to understand the validity of their calcs and projections. Because they have quite a shoddy track record there.

In other words, on the watchlist untill they actually deliver on forwarding the project by ensuring financing. But even then I want to be prepared by understanding risk and rewards, and how competatitve the enviroment is.