Sleeping Beauty ASX BSX, page-258

B. Battery Electrical Vehicles: Some forecasts have BEV sales climbing to 20M, 40M, or even 60M/year by 2040 or 2050. Jumping ahead in my analysis, the world will struggle to make 15M BEV’s, with lithium battery materials constraints. Nickel, lithium, cobalt, vanadium, and graphite are all shown to be in significant structural deficits by 2023/27 trying to make 3M to 5M BEV’s a year. With Lithium Battery densities achieving only 2x to 2.5x gains with foreseeable technologies like lithium-oxygen, how do we achieve 20M, 40M or 60M BEV’s a year with increased hybrids, too? We can’t without substantial expansion in low-cost mining. Mining exploration and investment won’t happen without significantly higher material prices. Higher prices take BEV’s from a near competitive cost position with gasoline to not cost effective. So net-net I don’t see a path to more than around 10M-15M BEV with reasonable lithium BEV battery costs to remain on par with gasoline.

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