Really helpful insights from inside the industry, and from a user, thanks!
Some of the industry factors you present in the GS research would increase the pressure on operators to take out cost through better systems, a possible tailwind for WTC... so that's puts the spotlight on whether CargoWise One is a better system, and how users see the ROI of its adoption.
I attach a picture from the WTC 2019 August Investor Presentation which shows the slow, progressive adoption of modules and users over many years, and it best encapsulates my belief that you have to take a long term view. 30+ acquisitions bringing in a lot of functionality across the end-to-end supply chain plus all the system investment to integrate into one modular platform and make available as SaaS sounds like a product worth having ... if its good and if clients can successfully integrate it. This must surely still be a work in progress.
Key question for WTC: is this a representative picture across the entire client base? If so then, wow, each client's adoption growth profile has real longevity. Or is it 'cherry-picked' from one large favourable client for IR purposes. (
Those of us who have IR experience know what I mean!)
I've done some analysis on Slide 27 (Cargowise One Revenue Growth by cohort). My numbers are estimated from the slide, but I get 5 year sustained CAGRs (year averaged, not volume weighted) or 35-40% for the 2006 through 2014 cohorts out to 2019. I get 35% (VW CAGR) on aggregated chohorts 2007 through 2014.That is strong sustained growth, and its organic. And much of the system investment is only impacting the last 2-3 years, as more acquired functionality is incorproated. So to me, its a killer chart.
Secondly, what kind of margins result from supporting this sort of client trajectory? WTC imply that all the acquisitions are producing short term margin erosion, and that they have scale leverage based on the organic model. (Slide 30, August presentation).
The fact that there are other systems doesn't both me, because the TAM is huge.
But is CargoWise One a good system: with good user experience that drives efficiency? By virtue of the 30+ acquisitions over the last 3 years, there's been a hell of a lot to digest and develop in the "catch-up" as you call it. It would be great to hear more user testimonials. (
By comparison, I hold XRO, and the SME owners in my network love it, as do the accountants, although some quibble that its more expensive for the smaller businesses. You also get a chance to meet a lot of users and hear reports back from Xerocon). I think investors need more transparency about 1) the user experience 2) use adoption trajectory and 3) use economics.
If IR start doing that, then we could all ignore short term shorting-focused analysis, and make better informed decisions based on the fundamentals.
(20min delay)