I think you are being a bit cute. I took the US$540m NPV10 number to be their estimate of value once the project is on production and has been largely derisked, accounting for the financing costs, rather than an NPV with a reference date of 2023. One could argue that you could use a lower discount rate than 10% at that point, since much of the risk has been taken out of the project. The difference in value between now and first oil will be derisking of the project.
Agree funding has cost $100m - not surprising given the risk of a company with no other income. Could have they done better? Unlikely.
There are other ways of valuing the project, for example multiples of earnings or cash flow. At an average of $180m free cash flow pa, $540m is a multiple of 3 years for a 20+ year project. Then there's peer comparisons on production rate, $/bbl type metrics etc.
Still think the market cap will build towards A$1b. Anyone know what the market cap of a 15,000 boe/day company?
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Last
50.5¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $46.20M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
50.0¢ | 50.5¢ | 50.0¢ | $14.08K | 28.06K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 9194 | 50.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
51.0¢ | 345490 | 5 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 9194 | 0.505 |
2 | 23590 | 0.500 |
2 | 32029 | 0.495 |
1 | 38794 | 0.475 |
1 | 42553 | 0.470 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.510 | 345490 | 5 |
0.515 | 8560 | 2 |
0.520 | 415246 | 10 |
0.540 | 451 | 1 |
0.550 | 2285 | 1 |
Last trade - 15.57pm 06/11/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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