I add my thanks to those of other posters to
@ecoool2 and
@otherperspective for their professional posts. All well-founded on evidence. All with appropriate disclaimers and cautions. Quietly encouraging while investors wait with optimism and a little trepidation for the only intelligence that matters - trial results and FDA acceptance.
Now, ecoool2 did provide quite specific calculations on which to base his expectations (noted: NOT forecasts) of what the share price
could be, dependent on successful trials and applications. He took into account all known and reasonably expected factors such as market size, possible uptake rates, product pricing, partnerships, discounts etc, etc.
Sensibly, probably with an eye to ASIC monitors and care for his professional reputation, he ignored major price accretive factors that I value highly and I believe could counterbalance some of those NPV discounts. Factors that could see 2020 share prices relate more closely to expected revenue of 1 or 2 or more years ahead.
This hope (not a prediction) depends of course on extremely good trial results in CHF and CLBP.
The price accretive factors that I
speculate on are:
1. success in CHF and CLBP trials would excite savvy investors into believing that MSB thereby proves a massive proof of concept of mode
s of action of our cells.
Many investors would put a $ value on this, a value that is not covered by conventional valuations as detailed by ecoool2 (nor should he, as a professional person).
This increased confidence in mode of action would convince many people to elevate their confidence in
and valuation of our tier 2 lines, and even other opportunities not yet under examination by MSB.
I would anticipate other researchers coming to MSB to license cells for use in their own attempts to achieve saleable product (cf. the patent licence agreement with Tigenix/Takeda). No extra effort for MSB. Just sell the cells.
2. Greed/FOMO, call it what you will.
Some of us can remember the 1969 bubble and frenzy of Poseidon, 80 cents to $283. Most have heard of the Dutch Tulip Mania. Now, not examples that I would want to be copied by MSB, as they were wealth destroying disasters, but the point is that when a market thinks that an extraordinary, once in a lifetime opportunity presents many people will abandon all conventional valuation processes and grab any part of the rocket that they can reach.
I am not saying this is a good thing but we know that it does happen and outstanding success in a new 21st century technology such as disruptive regenerative medicine, associated with a strong patent portfolio, is just the sort of thing that does it.
To summarise my two points, and with complete respect for ecoool2's thoroughly rational calculations, I have a personal, non-professional view that MSB's possible share price towards the end of this year and beyond could easily be enhanced way beyond what experienced, rational, appropriately conservative analysis can allow for. No respectable commentator (take a bow ecoool2 and otherperspective) would publish such an opinion.
Please do not let these musings influence your investment decisions. I have absolutely no experience in valuing shares. I am here as a punter.
(20min delay)