my reasons for holding cnp, page-18

hehehe copper Love that little joke you must have a similar sense of humour to me sad isn't it lol :)

Potential buyers then need to be aware that they only have a very definite window to grab hold of these assets.

If I was a buyer I would think hrrm maybe If I hold out they will go broke and ill buy this for 30% less.

I know the assets their selling are high quality but I just can't help to think alot of big shopping centre managers would be watching their leveraging as well. Also Global credit crunch means its alot more costly to get debit at the moment.

So Im thinking the only parties who would be intrested would be the likes of westfield who apprently are cash rich atm ( they would never ever allow centro to manage their centres so that would be out of the question) Or big super funds which could be an option. However its hard to negioiate on price if their is only A few people intrested. Also they know they can prolly wait a few months and pick the same assets up alot cheaper when they go broke. I know thats a big risk but their is alot of pesimism circulating Centro. Which has formed the opinion of A few their done and dusted.
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What happens if all of a sudden the global environment comes out of this liquidity trap?
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If it does well all be rich people. I mean that in two ways. If there was an improvement in ability to borrow there would be alot more players trying to get hold of these centres. Hence values would go up reducing leverage. Centro would also then secure long term debit extentions. Paying out the US noteholders would means wed get our dividence back yay!. People Would then percevive Centro as being able to survive anything.

In that after surviving and coming back from near bankrupcy and this whole saga may acutally help the SP. As a companies true colours are seen in the hard times and Centro have faired well other then paper losses though asset writedowns and goodwill they acutally still making profits. I think We would see a Massive upside on SP. Could be around 80c with increase valuations and the factoring in of the value of the service business again. Then Futhermore if a dividence 10 - 15c would see it way over A dollar. As 10% return on A share would be attractive to anyone.

My believe is this whole credit crunch issue will be gone by second quarter next year. This issue are often hyped up worse then they are. So IF the banks let centro survive till then I think we will see the in Roads of getting rich about then. Still not to say we could see 40c or more even in credit crunch conditions with some long term debit extentions.