I think you are confusing a trading opportunity with a long term investment. They are different things. I am interested in the latter.
There is of course a better than even chance this will fail - that is the nature of the exploration beast, I know that and it's the risk I take. But "risk" is the key word.
A lot of people who don't know any better, focus on the political or security risk of Africa. But if you do your homework, you will note that actually the instances where these issues have killed a good project are very very rare. But when they do happen, they are messy and make the front page, and so you notice them.
In contrast, the geological risk (that is, the risk of there not being anything there) of working in Australia is very very high, because the place is so mature. But you don't notice it, because there is no actual "event" that makes the front page - a project just sort of fades quietly away.
But if we set aside the news worthiness and just concentrate on dollars at risk, a hundred times more money is lost in mature countries due to geological risk than is ever lost in developing companies as a result of political risk.
But you will never see that in the papers.
Resolute is not pulling out of Australia to concentrate solely on Africa, because they like a challenge, they are doing it because that is where the gold is.
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