Mongo
Maybe I misunderstood you, but unemployment is only just starting to increase.
That means the economy turned down much earlier, and yes, employment will pick up well after the economy improves, but where is any suggestion of improving economies.
I am a TA man but I read that GDP is now considered an "iffy" measure of strength by some.
It does seem most economic measures are lagging and not coincident, except for the market, but you and I know that, lol.
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