RoughballparktheirFY20revenuewillbearound$21million.Beyondthatitishardtosay.Itwoulddependonhowwelltheirherniaproductssell.TheytoldusthattheirH1revenueisuparound130%overlastyear.TheDecember2milliondollarmonthwasalsoupbythesameamount.StartingwithaFYrevenueof9.3mlastyear,a131%increasewilltakerevenueto19.8million.
AnotherwaytoarriveattheFY20figureistakingtheaveragemonthlyrevenueinthesecondhalfoftheyearas2.5million(assumingeverymonththeymakemorerevenuethanthepreviousmonth-thisisimpliedincompanypresentations).2.5x6+9.3=24.3million.ThisbringstheFYrevenuegrowthrate161%andIthinkisprobablythehighestitcangowithouttheherniaproductsales.
Evenata$24millionrevenue,themarketcapis62timestherevenue!!!FPH(whichalreadytradesataveryhighPE)hasamarketcapofaround11timestherevenue.
Idon'tknowthesizeofthemarket.Ifmanagementistobebelievedthereisa$1bmarket.Ifthisfigureistobetakenasbeingtrue,thenextquestionishowmuchofthemarketcantheyrealisticallytake.Iftheycouldtake20%inthenext2to3years,thenwecouldstillseesomemeaningfulSPappreciationintheyearstocome.
IftheherniaproductscanstartaddingasimilarrevenuethenthecurrentSPisgreatforbuying.
IhaveboughtatinypositionintothecompanysoIcanmonitortheannouncementsandgetabetterpictureofwhatsgoingon.Iampreparedforthisthingtodropupto50%overnonewsandviewthecompanyvaluationasveryhighrisk.
Ann: 2019 AGM Recording, page-87
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