AGI - A Few Thoughts, page-32

Good to see a few folks still checking on on AGI @peejay2@Chickywick. Hope you had a great Christmas and New Year?

Well, let's get back to business. Both of you seem to know a few things about stocks so first let me remind you AGI has extremely low volume so it doesn't take much to move that stock's price double digitals--do yourselves a favour and look at the charts to see this volatility for yourselves. Second and more importantly take a look at AGI's share registry and unsurprisingly there aren't a lot of retail investors remaining in AGI so anyone trying to ramp AGI on this forum is either stupid or naive--I doubt very much insto's buy or sell based on hot copper posts and there isn't much retail left in AGI. I've got no idea why the stock has trended up recently because there is certainly no good news on the horizon. Gentlemen (or maybe ladies), take a look at the charts and you will see that late last year when we were posting AGI pretty much hit long term lows (2012 levels) and I suspect the recent uptick has been driven by "mean reversion" to late 2018 levels based on some insto buyers. Take a look at the charts and you'll see that broadly speaking AGI has been swinging above and below an average price of around 75c for over 12 months (mean reversion). If you sold late 2019 you were unfortunately below this 75c average. Also, take a look at the market depth on AGI and there are always far more shares for sale than buyers want so I don't think anyone needs to resort to ramping on hot copper to get sellers to come out and play.

Given that you are still a shareholder @Chickywick then you should take a look at the share registry, which should shed some light on who has been buying recently.

My commentary on AGI is not about picking short term peaks or troughs in AGI's share price, instead it is my thoughts on the short to medium term prospects of that business. I've said this to another poster, if you think my commentary is wrong then by all means please correct me. AGI has their half year results coming up and my prediction is that it will be a complete and utter embarrassment. The CEO has already hinted at an ordinary result, but word on the street is that the new CEO is still not fully across the business and I'm tipping that their Australian and RoW operations will come in at a massive loss dragging down a flat US and Sth American result. Can't wait to see their interim report late Feb.

@Chickywick, to each their opinion but I have never understood that logic of being suspect of someone who doesn't hold a position. Surely a person holding a position (long or short) is inherently conflicted when it comes to commenting on a stock, but a person not holding a position is somewhat more impartial?

Enjoy your weekend folks and maybe get onto ALL if you want to recover some of your losses or if you trade US stocks get onto Scientific Games because they're doing a great job of pinching some high profile ALL staff (I'm saying this tongue in cheek so don't take me seriously).