Ann: FY20 Outlook Update, page-2

Fair to say i didn't foresee a backslide of that magnitude, holy smokes. I'd expect the stock to settle around NZ$1.50-$1.75 on this update.

With NZ$78m recurring revenue and a guided cost base of NZ~$81m (FY19 was ~$85M pre bad debt, so ~$81M net of $4m cost savings), the midpoint of this guidance ($10m EBITDA) implies total non-recurring revenue of ~NZ$13m. To put that non-recurring revenue figure in context, the four prior years were:

- FY16: $22.8m
- FY17: $32.4m
- FY18: $40.6m
- FY19: $33.5m

I'm still undecided as to whether this is a true annus horribilis event or something worse. This clearly isn't an ~11% EBITDA margin business (which is what FY20 guidance now is, i.e. ~$10m / ~$90m), but it's clear the embedded growth story is in a shambles at least for the time being.