more thoughts, page-7

Dabru, Lemas et. al (+ good to see Decan come back ... although yeh, where is Anoir anyway?!),

Some nice posts today.

No, I haven't made the call yet ... I'll do it tomorrow or in the next few days ... work has been a bit too busy (although I have compiled a questions list in preperation for it, a lengthy one at that).

It was nice to see:
- the SP show some resurgence today, and as others have noted the sellers list is starting to thin a bit
- a very cheeky & paltry 460-share buy at 3:50pm to raise the SP from 12.5c back to its 13c high for the day
- Lemas openly daydreaming again (I particularly liked the "Kaa Ching"s ... very Waynes-World) & doing top-ups
- Dabru reminding us how rich this company can make us if & when they get all the puzzle-pieces into place

By the way, there was a brief mention of PLT in the Financial Review today on page 27, although the chart / financials / summary is not particularly flattering. Then again, the current situation is not a great look, it is hopefully the near-future that we look to & get excited about. It did however mention reasons for recent losses (no more skin treatments) / commercialisation of TruScreen and the new CerviScreen deal with Healthscope & Genera.

In terms of playing with numbers for the CerviScreen deal, I've been doing some nice dreaming of my own:
- the release said that in the next 5 years that if each of the targeted 70 million non-screening women presented once in the 5 year period (as recommended), that would be worth $3.5 billion in revenue
- 90% of those women would apparently be willing to do so
- let's say only 10% do so (worst-case?) ... that's $350 million over 5 years, so $70 million per year
- let's say PLT's share of that is 1/3, and round downwards to 1/4 to take costs into account: that's $17.5 million profit per year
- you can then play with that and imagine if 20% of the supposed 90% take it up, it's $35M; 40% = $70M etc. !!!
- that's just for the target market, there's also the US and China (+ India etc?)
- that's just for HPV; there's also the other Genera tests that will soon be available that their chairman encouragingly said can be placed "onto the Cerviscreen test menu"
- that's just for CerviScreen ... TruScreen is the here & now, and ready to produce some awesome numbers in the future

... just some food for thought

Cheers.

p.s. sorry to hear that Father's Day didn't stack up so well Lemas. Hopefully next year your 17/18-year old will get his act together, your wife won't go walk-about and your 18-month old will be that extra year older to be able to lavish special appreciation upon you (rather than require extra nappy changes)