I have observed the 4DS forum now for about 5 years without contributing mainly because 95% of the discussions are erroneous and uninformed at best, but occasionally there is a contribution which makes sense. Of all the contributions I would like to thank Tex for bringing some business sanity into the forum in more recent times. Others have been great in contributions for research which were valid gems.
I have been a 4DS shareholder for nearly 6 years, I believe I would be in the top 20 shareholders, I am retired (thanks to the share market) and I have sold 3 IT companies in my life to a large American, Canadian and Australian company. I have no inside information on 4DS. Please consider the following as hoping to assist you rather than being seen as arrogant. The reason for my contribution is the frustration I have in reading so many conspiracy theories, so many crazy conjectures and uninformed opinions which do nothing in assisting people get a better hold on 4DS. I trust the following is seen as useful.
1. The ongoing conversation about Guido (or anyone else) taking up their Options is nonsensical. If I were selling my company I would not take up any of my options until 2 things happened - the options were about to expire or the company was just about to be purchased next week. If he has options due in June, he will make a "financial" decision not a faith based decision. To do so means he would have to find the money (usually a loan) to pay for the options and then it would cause a CGT event for the Tax office - more money. Not everyone can afford to take up the options by going into debt and indeed may forgo these options if they were not significant to their existing shareholding. Guido's wage for a man of his talent is at very bottom end of commercial wages you would expect to pay a world leading scientist. Lastly from experience, sometimes the Directors are so busy working, that they don't have the time and totally ignore their financial situation. I know this when I lost 8 figure sums in the dotcom bust by being too busy to cash out my shares in time. This brings me to the next point.
2. The comment that this would show confidence by the Directors. BS - this company does not care and should not care DIRECTLY about any one of us. What it is focused on is getting the exact result which will benefit themselves at the end. By getting this, they automatically get the best result for you. So please stop looking for actions of confidence. Please stop putting in artificial bookmarks for yourselves and others as "events" you need to see in order to continue having faith in the company - these conversations actually trigger the sells (which indeed might be a downramper strategy).
3. 4DS was an R&D company. It is now an IP Commercialisation company. It is not a manufacturing or revenue or production company. It is packaging and tightening everything up into a neat parcel to maximise its exit strategy. On that basis, because of the vast ruthless competitive environment, it does not want to release any detailed metric information until it definitely has to, avoiding giving any of its competitors (and buyers) even the slightest edge. Ergo - patents, watertight confidentiality contracts, repeatable processes, production techniques, limited technical detail - the tighter this is, the less vulnerable the end result. Compare this with the marketing company - WBT.
4. I have not seen an R&D company execute so well as 4DS. The ongoing vague statements about them not hitting their targets is crazy. If you read every update, they have been nearly spot on for the last few years. The problem is when someone sees 2019-20 they read this as 2019. When they see 2-4 iterations, they panic when iteration 3 happens.
5. The value of the company will never be related to the existing share price it was never going to be so. The share price will be what the highest bidder is willing to pay - that may be WDC or not. It will of course be related to (a) the market value and (b) strategic value. And I also note the ongoing conversation of WDC having right of refusal. I read that this was dispelled at the AGM.
6. There is one major primary endorsement of the Director's faith in 4DS. Not one of them have sold their shares, all of them have taken up the opportunity to take more shares or options for the ENTIRE life of the company whether these be salary sacrifice, performance, off-market arrangements - you do not need anymore faith so please don't find whimsical holes in them not being committed.
7. Lastly - Jim Dorian is an equity investment specialist who has attached himself to this company for 11 years! He was already rich and had previously sold big. Do you honestly believe a person who is already so rich would apply himself to this company for such a long time if he thought he would get a meagre return. He has 50 mill or so in shares. Do you think he would accept 20c a share for $10m - laughable. IMO he would be looking for a minimum $US50m exit and realistically a $US100m+ exit; "+" being operative sign.
8. Of course, as with all shares, this might go from being a poor return (if all the 11 years of information is bogus and has limited value), to an absolute blinder if what 4DS has is a generational base for new memory.
I apologise beforehand if any of the above appeared arrogant and of course this is opinion only. I will now recede back into the cave.
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