NZ exports update May 18 & IF exports Analysis, page-458

Yes, if ppl just look back through previous years port data vs A2M sales, they will quickly realize there is no reliable correlation to each other. There are so many analysts (especially the BP guy) that think they are clever by ignoring A2M forecasts and coming up with their own guesses based on this very crude data point. That has made them to look more stupid than they probably are.

There are all kinds of lags and buffers in the supply and sales chain which means no one outside the company can predict sales from that data. As an example, last year they signed up a large amount of MBS stores. They would have all required initial stock as would have the local warehouses supporting them. That will not be repeated in this year's numbers thus may explain the difference in volumes being shipped.