Ann: Appendix 4C - quarterly, page-71

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elleburra

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03/02/20

12:30

Post #: 42714889
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Originally posted by stockrock: ↑

Solid quarterly update, nothing really negative... but also a more timid revenue guidance as compared to previous years... I was actually very pleased to see only a 20% increase in SPS revenue in 2020. That has no doubt come from a humbling 2019 with SPS falling short of initial guidance .
Quarterly call answered the cash flow shortfall for the Q4, with US$1m already received in Q1 2020 and US$2m expected in weeks.

That doesn't quite mean they are off the hook, as Q1 2020 is guiding US$5m shortfall but if you add the miss in Q4 19 they are actually guiding higher than that.

Having said that, Q2 is going to be a massive quarter for cash flow. Pay day in simpler terms. We all feel much better after pay day don't we? Fluence will be no different... and don't forget the US$18m in SQ revenue and cash disbursements that were supposed to be recognised in 2019, but are now expected in 2020... that is likely to fall into Q2 or possibly Q3... providing further positive cash flow in 2020. This all makes it difficult to follow up in the quarters to follow, but they never guided to positive cash flow just yet, so the coming couple of quarters will be a nice boost to cash as well as debt facilities coming online.

Corona Virus impact was a mute point as the Chinese new year holidays effectively means these past two weeks would have meant China is closed for business anyway. The positive is that Chinese projects don't usually get struck until mid and late year.. and it sounds like they have some already lined up, with an objective for 2020 to sign up more multi-year MABR deals in China. We already have 3, and if we end 2020 with 5 or more... I'd call that a very positive development (If Tiandi sign up, it'll be game over sub $1).

The key reminder is that after closing the Ivory Coast project, management can now focus more on the SPS business. That is vital and we cannot under estimate the management time the Ivory Coast project consumed. Milestones and developments are made in areas where management have time to dedicate...

I think Henry intentionally dropped the Argentina business meeting line... I'm expecting something major to come out from that area in the coming months.

Current sentiment is soft, which means more opportunity to accumulate. As noted in previous posts, the next couple of quarters will be a lot more positive with positive quarterly cash flow and more certainty on SQ and China (River remediation).

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stockrock,
once again many thanks for your summary of the call.
I do wonder about this $5 million shortfall where you surmise:-

"That doesn't quite mean they are off the hook, as Q1 2020 is guiding US$5m shortfall but if you add the miss in Q4 19 they are actually guiding higher than that."

My guess is that they have already allowed for that delayed $5 million in their projected cash burn of $5.8 million?

regards, EB

FLC Price at posting: 38.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Appendix 4C - quarterly, page-71

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Ann: Appendix 4C - quarterly, page-71

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