Please dont refrain, your contributions are very valued.
I agree in part with your comments, however didnt IPM buy an already discovered and producing field (selmo) in Turkey. so really they have had one commercial success. I dont think we can say Kurnia was bad management with a 10% probability, although the cost overuns werent good. Personally it provided me with a great exit although I have given about 75% of that back now
At the end of the day there where only two international failures.
I still think MS has managed risk well farming down Kurnia I would love to see a farmdown of its Hammamet holdings to 25% to reduce exploration spend.
I think COEs bid for IPM doesnt reflect the fact that they see themsleves as being unable to add value or have success themselves, its simply an opprotunisitc bid. Consider COE at present. Why would one spend 3 million to target 1 million barrels with a 30%- 45% probability (parsons drill) ie $3 per barrel when you can buy COEs reserves at about $5, even with a takeover premium on top of current prices you can probably buy COEs barrels at $10-15 plus all the permits.
My point all along is that I think an incorrect conclusion has been drawn that the takover bid is an admission that they cant succeed without it. I do think as stated by them that it provides a better risk reward mix. Also Mike Scots capital raising at I time when many of us criticised it for being unecessary has proved to be a master stroke in hindsight
COE Price at posting:
33.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)