William McInnesBlackmores could benefit from increased demand for immune related products on the back of the the coronavirus outbreak according to Select Equities.The research firm upgraded its recommendation on the health supplements company from 'sell' to 'accumulate', saying while its Chinese sales could be hurt, strong demand from Australia could boost earnings."Blackmores remains the clear market leader in the Australian health supplements categories with signature ranges immune+ under Blackmores and ArmaForce under BioCeuticals," said anlyst Frida Wang."Increasing fears of a spreading coronavirus outbreak may boost Blackmores' local immune related products sales in 2H20. We estimate up to an incremental $40 million sales in these ranges may be achievable during the half across Blackmores domestic business, BioCeuticals and Other Asia."The analyst acknowledged the company's direct post channels and daigou sales could be hurt by the coronavirus however."In the short term, this will negatively impact the direct post channel of Blackmores," said Ms Wang."The tourist ban and entry restrictions applying to visitors from mainland China will also negatively impact the sales in ANZ market, and product ads posted by daigou will be lower during this period. We estimate still ~25 per cent of Blackmores China sales are selling via direct post."Select Equities upgraded its revenue forecasts for fiscal 2020 and 2021 by 4.8 and 3.1 per cent respectively.
overall looks fairly negative/ neutral to be honest, select equities small time broker only.
