I read/heard somewhere that steady state mining at Syama UG is not expected till mid-year. On that basis there will be no confirmation of the UG operation till then, but the stockpile should allow them to make a reasonable profit from the operation giving the impression of good times. In order to get to the US$750 AISC I imagine the carbon roaster is needed in addition to the power plant completion - this isn't happening this year. As you say the AISC will ultimately come down to a question of ore moved. Given the automated process the costs should be quite fixed, therefore lower extraction means higher costs. I really don't think they will get to the higher mining rates expected on a consistent basis. I think US$950+ AISC is more likely than US$750. Your suggestion of mixing in Tabakoroni 5g/t is probably the only slim chance of achieving the lower figure.
If JW goes my feeling is that the UG mine will be re-cast as a 35-40koz/Qtr operation (if it hasn't already with the merging of sulphide & oxide reporting) with a higher AISC. My fag packet RSG valuation is about $1.4B less $500M of debt for a market cap of $900M or 90c ish.
Cheers
W
RSG Price at posting:
$1.05 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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