Ann: Form-10Q, page-2

Lots of moving parts in this result (Bemis restructuring costs, synergies booked, raw materials inputs, previous corresponding period one-offs eg. favourable mix in pcp in Rigids, typical variances in performance across geographies, cycling strong Q4 comp period) but overall it was not at all bad, I thought.

As with every AMC, some bouquets and some brickbats, but not any one of them big enough to be able to move the dial.

But I think the most relevant update was that the Bemis-related synergies are being harvested ahead of expectations (in timing, at least, but I suspect they are low-balling the total synergies).

This is a near-bullet proof business, but not a very sexy one at a time where there is so much other thematically "hot" stuff around.

As a result, unlike most of the "hot" stocks, which have nose-bleed valuations (or, are impossible to value (!), as the case often is), AMC's valuation is still modest, at a around 15x P/E and 10x EV/EBITDA

Compared to the broader market, AMC's valuation rating is plumbing near all-time lows (although that's partly explained by the market being generally expensive):



As a >20% ROE global business which is a dominant player in almost all the markets it services, and growing earnings organically at 6% to 8% pa over time, I see AMC being - at the very least - a market multiple type of company (and probably warranting more like 10%-20% premium to market, where it has happily traded for periods in the past).

It is certainly not a discount-to-market stock, which is where the market has it currently valued.

Accordingly, I added to my AMC shareholding this morning.

It's not a stock that will double in value any time soon, but I think it will yield around a 10%pa -12% pa total shareholder return over the next few years, even of there is no upwards re-rating of the multiple.
(Any re-rating, which is well within the realms of possibility, would be a bonus).

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