Chart Update, page-10193

I think $15 is a fair value based on the known knowns - the issue now is one of outlook.

1H will not have been affected by the CV. How much will H2 be affected?

GB has come out and said currently operations are not affected but surely there must be SOME supply chain issues now within China.

So the question is, even if food and medical is being prioritized over non-essentials - how much are these critical freight items navigating from province to province right now given the quarantine challenges and staffing issues etc?

I think the chart is reflecting this uncertainty - I expect many buyers are waiting on the sidelines for more clarity that is truly IS business as usual, or waiting for a short attack/dip on any slightly negative tones in the 1H presentation to buy cheaper.

There is no doubt in my mind we are in a buy op window. We just don't know how far the window will open.