BUT 1/2 the ore, 1/2 the infra is already owned by mitsu. Is it possible for sino and mitsu to continue the current partnership arrangement? Unlikely but possible.
The BIG question is will Mitsu make a counter bid? I suspect they will and will also get approval for 49.9%
Sino will now have to accumulate large amounts quickly to get to 19.9% being the take over trigger. Then its a matter of making an offer that suits Harbinger, Posco, and management to get up to 49.9%.
It is also possible that sino could go to 100% of mmx if it agreed to divest the infrastructure.
What is mmx worth : -
cash: 165 mill
ore: 1 billion maybe but who really knows - based on the mmx/mitsu deal this is a realistic figure.
ownership of infrastructure: guessing at 1 billion maybe more - not sure
total: 2.165 billion perhaps
With 420 million mmx shares that makes my back of envelope calculation to be about $5.15 as a 1st offer.
Add another $2.50 as a t/o premium [wishful thinking but possible] and you get to $7.65
MMX Price at posting:
$1.20 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
