I was having a think about this last night and think that the offer will be at least 50c in the dollar.
We know there is a letter of support in place until September 2009. However, the argument from AFG seems to be that the support does not extend past the sale or IPO of Alleasing. So presumably if the sale does not go through AFG will have to continue providing financial support.
As I understand it the AHUG holders will be asked to approve the sale. So imagine if the choice is to approve the sale and get say $10 per security or reject the sale to maybe get $105 per securty and the coupon payments. What would you pick?
So the question is basically is how much cash would you take for certainty now as opposed to the uncertain prospect of collecting $115 or so per security over the next twelve months.
Thoughts?
Obviously I am speculating over the contents of the Letter of Support and how binding it would be. However, I also think AFG want to get rid of Alleasing and so need to make an attractive enough offer to get it over the line (assuming the permission of the AHUG holders is required).
AFG Price at posting:
13.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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