Over the last year or two myself and others have brought up that same point a few times and I even suggested a price around $3.00 would be the minimum buyout. That would have now increased given the increase in resource but at the same time offset slightly by global market conditions and a slowing demand for IO.
"IF" Ansteel does have any intentions, the stumbling block up to now may have been the EPA and Gov't approvals and co-operation that may be far easier to obtain with an Australian owner, rather than a Chinese owner. Half way through next year that stumbling block will be out of the way.
My opinion now though is the chances are low that it will happen. GJ has always said the only way both partners would move forward to develop Karara was under a strictly 50/50 partnership. The board would be selling shareholders short unless they received a super premium to the current price. At current levels, that premium would need to be at least 300-400% for a bid to be successful. I can't see it at the moment.
The big shareholders arced up at the SDL deal and they would be unhappy at any deal centered even at a 200% premium to the current price. It would be an opportunistic attempt although a lot of small shareholders would be in favour given the current environment.
GBG Price at posting:
74.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
