I have been looking at the chart and the waves more closely on the weekend trying to make sense of what is happening. Trying to understand what happened to Wave 5 and why TLS hasn't been able to get back to $4.00. The answer is that it looks like Wave 4 hasn't ended yet and Wave 5 hasn't started.
I previously thought that Wave 4 had already ended on 3-4 October with the $3.40 low and Wave 5 had started. If that was the case, the recent touch on $3.94 after the 1H2020 result, should have continued up, but it didn't. That bothered me. So, On ending Wave 3, we entered a type of Wave 4 that is called a triangle as MKI4EVA has illustrated. It consists of 5 waves, A, B, C, D and E (1st image). And each of those waves have smaller 3 sub waves, a, b and c (2nd image). We are currently in Wave E and the final part of E (the "c" part of it). So, the recent 3 day green candle bounce we had to a high of $3.81 was a dud and not the end of this down move. It was sub wave "b" inside wave "E". We are going to get somewhere between $3.67 and $3.62. Examples of the triangle are shown in image 3 and 4 (source fbs.com)
This triangle we are in is called a barrier triangle or ascending triangle with a flat top because of the lows formed (A and C) are rising and the top B and D can be considered flat.
Once this Wave E is complete (very likely this or next week), we should get Wave 5 starting. But, it is critical that this Wave E does NOT go below Wave C low of $3.54 for what I have outlined to hold. We need signs of recovery from anywhere around $3.67-$3.62 (green candle with decent volume on the day it happens).
IF we don't get a rebound and we go lower than $3.62 and start heading further down to $3.50's and break Wave C low of $3.54, all bets are off and we are not in Wave 4 and Wave 5 has already happened and we didn't even see it or know it. That is called an Impulse Wave Truncation (Truncated Fifth Wave) and as described in the last image (source Stockcharts). In which case is bad news.
Hope this is more clear for people.
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