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25/02/20

11:20

Post #: 43133136
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Originally posted by AverageJoe: ↑

I got into a gas play this morning, limit order filled at auction. Not a trade so may suffer from some falling knife cuts.

Gold $1690 was always the level I was watching which is a monthly resistance not from the way most draw that level. Almost hit it by a few cents and sold down forming a bearish pin bar every noob could see LOL. Could be those severely stale bulls buying at the time deciding to clear out after 8 years of drawdown (?).

Such an expo rally in price on anything is never healthy in the ST but the virus infection is difficult to gauge where the peak infection rate lies or if there is a pandemic. Bearing in mind most Western democracies if we can call it that has more liberal model of what civil liberties so a Chinese type draconian policy of quarantine (curfew to some) will be a challenge. Can their hospital capacity cope with an influx?

Again this is now looking like a Black Swan event because our medical experts do not know the biological nature of this virus, 14 days extended to 21 days of incubation contagion and now we have 'stories' of potentially 27days of contageous incubation. Going by the SK/Japs/Iran and Italy, there is logical inference that the stealth nature has been carried to other parts of the world so potentially we can even get some recessionary conditions for those countries very much leveraged to China's trades.

Going by the GFC, Deutche bank, Grexit EUR implosion and trade war, eventually this sell off becomes another buying opportunity and the doom bangers lose control in the recovery. Although my gold exposure is up with the earlier ones doing much better, I am not actually celebrating this fact. A gold spike usually reward on one hand and take away with the other. Those who have a more balance diversified portfolio will know what this is all about.

My one regret was not knowing how to purchase put options these past few weeks or rather to understand how to look at options for its under/over value.

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It is now officially a liquidity event Joe.
At the very least it is now in the horizon where 6 months ago it was not...
7 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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gold, page-66792

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