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Ann: Revenue Guidance for Q1 2020, page-5

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  1. 1,728 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 3795
    Estimated cash outflow for the December 2019 quarter: $1,542,000
    https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191031/pdf/44b4rdljy9spz0.pdf
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2009/2009163-8e75c40c295628436ef85f1e29b6eb9f.jpg

    Actual cash outflow for the December 2019 quarter: $‭1,868,588 (1,498,214+370,374)
    https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200115/pdf/44d8n05zdqkl11.pdf
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2009/2009152-9212bd0b124b6c65e8b9c5d022bba308.jpg

    So, I guess they got that estimate wrong by 21% or so? On purpose? Maybe? Who knows?

    Estimated cash outflow for the March quarter: $1,540,000 (likely "estimated" below actual)
    https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200115/pdf/44d8n05zdqkl11.pdf
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2009/2009128-596b23febc764b601ba4842332100f65.jpg

    And now we have the figures for monthly recurring revenues:
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2009/2009208-64c5e22656aa4fec13d8fd98e9e918ec.jpg

    Very crudely deriving/equating quarterly customer receipts from quarterly revenue we get:
    $119,970 + $132,718 + $145,564 = $398,153
    $398,153 potential cash receipts from customers for the March quarter?

    Let's (perhaps wrongly?) assume cash outflow isn't underestimated for this quarter?

    $398,153 potential inflow
    MINUS
    $1,540,000 potential outflow (likely underestimated)
    EQUALS
    ‭$1,141,847‬ potential outflow (likely to be more, IMO) for the March 2020 quarter

    Cash at the end of December quarter was: $3,837,112... Doesn't look too bad... But...
    Note that APV had a capital raising was when cash levels were last reported as $3,025,412...

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2009/2009276-1ffcd87003ef180415a08825d795ffb4.jpg
    https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200115/pdf/44d8n05zdqkl11.pdf

    So, we have, potential cash outflows of $1,141,847 for the March quarter?
    Cash levels at the end of the December quarter being $3,837,112?
    A potential cash level at the end of the March 2020 quarter being... $‭2,695,265
    $‭2,695,265 = [$3,837,112 - $1,141,847 (cash flow for this quarter is likely to be larger, IMO)]

    $‭2,695,265 potential cash at the end of this quarter is less than the last time they had a capital raising? Hmm, not great? Ah, what else do we have? APV force-feeding the market marketing material to talk up their figures? Hmm, I wonder why.?

    I don't know about the forum, but I will not be surprised to see another capital raising soon.

    IMO, a capital raising is coming, soon. In the next few months? Beware a possible pump? redface.png
    Last edited by glutenfree: 26/02/20
 
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