2ic,
whether its 2kg or 12kg, 1 million or 3 million vehichles, the volumes created by the EV market will still be small. I've lived in China/HK for the last 10 years and there are electic bikes using lithium batteries everywhere, has been for years. So the lithium market will be similar to the minor metals markets, very volatile and prone to being dominated by one or two large players.
dont agree with your second point at all. Your right if we are talking about internationally traded commodities, but Argentina doesn't export potash. As an example, there is a number of foreign companies that have invested in Chinese fertilizer production, they sell to the local market at one quarter the international price and haven't benefited at all from the run up in international prices.
these points are academic for now, my main interest is getting some discussion on lithium volumes instead of seeing all these posts (especially on the ADY thread) about which car company is adopting lithium technology.
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