Hi alboot, FMS IO is my first experiment to gamble a set of pennies to get dollars.
Before FMS conceptual IO announcement I was busy to do the experiments to gamble a succession of pennies to get dollars for about 4 years.
Actually I am waiting for another unexpected good surprise from FMS. It is my feeling big money from the big surprise to the market which could not surprise you.
I am trying to update my mind set and hope I could see a full picture about FMS IO in my box, FMS's box, IO box, Pilbara box, BRIC box, and the global economy box.
I do feel FMS IO could be a trigger point or turning point and let us to buy more time to ponder how to play in the market with a fail-safe mechanism.
Andrew Forrest bet all on his vision about IO with his luck, huge lucks. KW has vision about diamond and was not so lucky on it, but he was lucky enough to get the chance to ride on the IO cart not too late.
The lucks in exploration mainly depends on the main themes of the market in years and what the asset could be confirmed. The main themes could not be set by the market sentiment in short term but the fundamental in economy.
There are too many factors work on the fundamental, which increases the difficulty to predict its course but also make it is hard to change the course.
Somebody said the star would shed its brightest light at the end. The IO star has become hot but I feel it is not in its brightest time.
Our nature decides that
1. We love the tangible, the confirmation, the palpable, the real, the visible, the concrete, the known, the seen, and the vivid
2. We love the visual, the social, the embedded, the emotionally laden, the salient, the stereotypical,
and the moving
3. We love the theatrical, the romanced, the cosmetic, the official, the scholarly-sounding verbiage, and the pompous Gaussian economist
4. Most of all, as somebodies said, we favor the narrated.
5. we are not manufactured, in our current edition of the human race, to understand abstract matters
We need context. Randomness and uncertainty are abstractions. We respect what has happened, ignoring
what could have happened.
In other words, we are naturally shallow and
superficial—and we do not know it.
"This is not a psychological problem; it comes from the main property of information. The dark side of the moon is harder to see; beaming light on it costs energy. In the same way, beaming light on the unseen is costly in both computational and mental effort."
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