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29/02/20

15:13

Post #: 43234093
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Originally posted by Doctori: ↑

Not easy to work out but obviously important when looking at valuation. Company says $1 billion but likely to be an underestimate as Novosorb is so good it opens up new possibilities for dermal matrices -scar reconstruction surgery for example. The main competitor-Integra- is said to have sales of $200 million and it was stated at the AGM that “we will take all of that”. Working in operating theatres and speaking to plastic surgeons, plus the massive insider selling from Integra gives me little reason to doubt that. If you speak to a plastic surgeon who has used it and hear their excitement you would think as I do, that the only surprise would be if sales don’t double in the next 6-12 months. In my hospital which has seen its first 2 cases in the last month I have already heard a surgeon from a different speciality talk about using it and I expect uptake to be rapid.
I wouldn’t attempt to calculate a DCF valuation myself but I note Macquarie have a target of $2.80 based on their estimate. Maybe introduction into new jurisdictions could be slowed by Corona virus but long term makes no difference.
Like David Williams I am a long term holder and recently bought more at $2.52. I will be adding more. As I have seen about 300k wiped off my position in the last few weeks, believe me I have reconsidered my investment very carefully and my conclusion is BUY. Any short term pain will be worth it in the long run.
Hope that helps.

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Its true that you can become a little uneasy when you hold a fair bit of stock and you see it decline like now, but we on HC
are very fortunate to have people who can appreciate and convey to us how special this product is, and also the view of
other medical professionals who have used it.. There have been newspaper accounts of the wonderful recovery times experienced,
but ease of application, and operating time saved, can only come from those who use it or see it used.in the workplace.
And also to know that quite a number of medical people are also buying more stock because they believe in it.

PNV Price at posting: $2.29 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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