My view is that it’s an even playing field. If Kogan is impacted, then it’s other retail friends will be evenly impacted.
Tell me, if supply chains get cut for 12 months, which business will fare better? Say I’m comparing with their major rivals in the TV, general electronics, home and furniture space which would put them against Harvey Norman, Myer, JB Hifi plus The Good Guys and also Kmart.
If supply chain suffers and China production get delayed, and say they run low on stock to sell, which business will be able to hold its own?
Would it be the retailers with tens or hundreds of millions of dollars in rent, staffing costs and other fixed overheads that come with the territory of having bricks and mortar stores? Or will it be the agile and flexible retailer with barely any overheads, whose store (website) can be left open 24/7 no matter if foot traffic is zero of ten billion?
Which retailer will be agile and flexible enough to quickly change supply chain from China to say Vietnam, or Thailand, or Taiwan, or India in order to get a suitable alternative?
I know which one I would bet my money on.
We have seen so many retailers die off like Big W closing down stores, EB Games closing down stores, Bardot and Oroton go into administration, Harris Scarfe and Dimmeys go down the toilet, TopShop, GAP, Esprit and Toys’R’Us give up. Those happened before the virus reduced foot traffic into malls and public spaces. Those happened before the supply chain choke.
I look forward to seeing the retailers that barely survived last year, attempt to survive this year. We’ll see which retailers get weeded out again this year.
And I am darned sure that Kogan.com Limited will again be a net beneficiary from the demise of its competitors.
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