$3.90 valuation by GS updated, page-84

You’re asking if SBM is at risk from workforce and supply chain challenges as a result of the the coronavirus? OK - yes - there is a chance that the workforce could be compromised and there’s a chance that parts and equipment could be delayed if/when needed.

Should SBM be discounted for these risks? Possibly. But how do you apply a discount when the same risk should be applied to every mining, industrial, agricultural, financial, automotive etc etc sectors? Does the discount look at where the operations are located? In our case, Nova Scotia, WA and an island in PNG. Could these areas be adequately protected? Probably.

Would SBM have a risk management plan around spares and equipment? Probably yes. And they’d have a good inventory of spares onsite as per standard ops.

So your concerns about the virus are valid but if you plan on discounting SBM, you should also be applying that discount to literally every other stock you own - irrespective of sector. And if your applying the same risk to every stock in every sector, how do you apply a specific discount?

A similar, universal risk is cyber attacks. There have been several cases recently of hackers completely shutting down operations of very large organisations. It could happen to anyone so technically everyone is at risk. How do you apply a risk discount for that?

Good luck working it out. If it’s such a concern, perhaps the best way to attack it is to sit the market out entirely. That’s not a smart ass reliable, that’s a legit option and one that many people are taking.