Short Term Trading Week Starting: 02 Mar, page-55

US Update

The original post-market note contained errors on the ES profile.  The ES overnight session has seen price move to the top of the rth value area as seen in the charts below.  Apologies.

On Wednesday the SPX rallied back to 3130.12 or +4.22% on moderately strong breadth and relatively diminished NYSE volume. Both the SPX and NDX are just above their half retracements of the decline from 19 Feb.

"Stocks Jump on Virus Spending and Biden Win" is a typical headline. Also of course we hear that the market is digesting yesterday's 50 bp emergency rate cut.

NYSE A-D lines spent the session over 1000 and closed at +2132 while NYSE breadth trended higher to close at +5.73:1. NASD breadth closed at +4.72:1. NYSE TICK was distributed overwhelmingly to the upside and cumulative TICK trended higher from the open. TRIN: 1.05. VIX: 31.99 or -13.12%. The final thrust came at the NYSE auction reveal of +4.745B at ten minutes to the close.

ES futures pared a bit at the cash session close and settled at 3113.75. The daily volume point of control is 3046.25 with most time spent at 3059.50. Keep in mind the profile has large single print runs and disparate distribution points that are characteristic of recent trade and volume at point of control does not have much more than many other places in the day. The value area for Wednesday's trade is between 3032 and 3092 but the main chunk of action is roughly between 3031 and 3070.75. Neither end of the profile show evidence of resolute decision making but that is expected in view of the overall action.