likelyhood of ahug holders agreeing to sale, page-13

I agree with smokeyd. I think this is the best deal we are going to get (although I'll be interested to see the exact detail in the proposal).

In a straighforward liquidation situation (ignoring the Letter of Support) AHUG might well be worth nothing. The Alleasing Trust has negative net assets of $250m and the preference units ($140m or so) are towards the bottom of the creditor pile. It is only the Letter of Support that is holding the value of AHUG up IMO.

If AFG was in robust health then I think that there would be a good chance of recovering more via the Letter of Support. However, given AFG's relatively fragile state I am inclined to accept the offer to get the certainty of the return (at least the first part - I will reserve judgement on the second part).

I appreciate that for some people this will be an unpleasant deal to accept but I think the consequences of not accepting could be much worse.