is this the bargain phosphate stock on asx, page-84

Welcome back Jen but you might cop yourself another holiday if you're not careful.

I don't think Brabus is being bullying - just stating the facts as he sees them. As he says, this is an atrocious market and is going to be very tough for specs over the next 1-2 years. I too see it like the early 2000's when it was very difficult for juniors to get money to progress worthwhile projects - was one of the reasons we see juiors dabble in whatever hot sector is going ie to try and raise capital.

UCL may well have the same difficulties. On it's side are major shareholders who have, to date, been willing to continue to fund the company. If this continues to be the case they will stay solvent. The next challenge will be raising capital for development of Sandpiper - that will be a task in the current climate.

I noted in the last announcement Dr Reid made reference to negotiations to secure the future of Sandpiper and UCL's position there. Given he is very conservative in what he says I expect that some form of discussions are underway - we'll have to wait and see if the market kills them off as is happening with many other resource juniors around the world.

Nobull. Good to see you again. From what I gather phospate prices have come off with normal seasonal cycles and also fertiliser prices look to have peaked for the time being and are now searching for equilibrium.

Here's Fertilizerworks report this week on state of fertiliser market - lot of instability with the US credit crunch:

http://www.fertilizerworks.com/fertreport/pdf/2008/TheMarket-100308.pdf

Rock phosphate has risen from long term US$50/mt to upwards of $400/mt spot price over the last 18 months. A spectacular rise that will probably break off with the rest of the world market, at least for a time. The thing is that a 50% correction from here is still likely to be viable for Sandpiper given that $200/t was sufficient for UCL to pursue the project with an expectation of proving viability. We need to keep an eye out for what price it finds a base.

Long term fundamentals are sound to continue to support strong prices for at least the next 3-5 years from what I'm reading and perhaps longer depending on how quickly miners can get new projects up and running. With a choked up credit market for the next year or two I would think most current projections would be amended.

Here's an interesting article on peak phosphate relating to Morocco who are plundering the Western Sahara illegally:

http://www.wsrw.org/index.php?cat=105&art=837

And another highlighting the finite future of phosphate reserves. (and offering a renewable alternative in recycling human effluent)

http://phosphorusfutures.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=15&Itemid=29

(http://phosphorusfutures.net/index.php
for home page - worth a read)

Finally an interesting article from a couple of weeks ago on BON presentation at the Africa Downunder conference.

http://www.miningweekly.com/article.php?a_id=143504