Ann: Profit Guidance, page-6

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Tinwins

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12/03/20

11:37

Post #: 43445716
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Originally posted by joewolf ↑

I am sorry I don't get this logic that it's unexpected:

TPM(TPG) - $7.19 January end $7.93 yesterday - Business case and outlook substantially better than ever. Dividends are already low.
NHC has flagged the problem with coal prices it's not something new but they are a low-cost producer and yes it may affect a very small portion of the overall portfolio.
The BKW comment is a bit of a joke. They sold some of our shares(SOL) so their income from this will be lower, we have no idea what the income will be from the replacement assets as BKW hasn't released their results. I don't think they are saying anything but may well be hinting that BKW results may be softer than they expected.I think the gas price increase was already hurting as was the business cycle.
Then Round Oak minerals is a dog has been a dog and under every different corporate name is a dog. Why they keep pouring more money into the dog I don't know.

So then the cherry - well our dividends received are roughly the same as last year, I looked at these dividends, excluding NHC they get around $84 million from the rest and last year they received $66.5 million from NHC. Now NHC has a lot of franking credits and in fact, given that they have no approval for Akland I suspect their cash flow generation to be far better than if they were investing so they will generate a lot of cash flow. So do they continue the dividend or halve it. I suspect closer to halve it. So, say that will be $33 million which means that SOL gets around $114 million and to keep the payout the same would have to payout $137million a gap of $23 million or would have to drop the dividend to 48c fully franked. That's around 3.8%. So if they want my advice get rid of Round Oak and concentrate on the rest. I expect TPM to pay more out once they have bedded this down. Probably around 2 to 3 years and the 3rd competitor will be right up there with the other two. I personally think 5G and the small cell will change their business and cannot wait to get my mobile internet for the home and get rid of that useless NBN... I think that is the next wave of a great business asset SOL will have. Very happy to accumulate if the panic controls the narrative. Not sure which is best and will be looking at that.

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Joe, dont apologise matey. nor am I surprised,
I agree with that brief analysis... just saying it will get cheaper in my uneducated op..

SOL Price at posting: $18.71 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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Last $40.29		Change -0.240(0.59%)		Mkt cap ! $14.75B

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