Hi zaccc, most of us actually are busy on some guesswork useless and pointless sinc we are human. All of us, as FSM shareholders, are questioning ourselves a lot in paradox.
Somebody told me "a paradox is a true statement or group of statements that leads to a contradiction or a situation which defies intuition; or it can be, seemingly opposite, an apparent contradiction that actually expresses a non-dual truth."
FMS, FMS IO, Financial tsunami, News about BRIC slowing down, and the uncertainties of the global economy, make every guesswork possible to get high marks. However we are very emotional and most of time we just support the statement which support our guesswork.
I tried to get my decision based on the probability and the consequences in best and worst cases only. I could not accept my guesswork or any one's guesswork for future.
Positive sides:
1. I believe the probalitiy of FMS IO which has big enough amount and good enough grade. Big enough is what I want to know from FMS drilling result.
2. I believe the desire of bellions of people want the similar life here is powerful enough to breakthough the barriers in their industrializaion. No fate of human kind need to consider.
3. FMS IO needs the big boys to fight for their shares, which needs big enough FMS IO and no strategic disasters could be seen at least in 2-5 years.
4. The appreciation of FMS IO value could happen after the JORC.
Negative sides:
1. The nature makes jokes to FMS and FMS shareholders. He intentionally empty FMS tenements millions years ago.
2. Financial tsunai could last longer and stronger, and delay the industrializaion of BRIC.
3. The appreciation of FMS IO value coul last longer and you have to get more gut crunching time. No one know how long.
4. You put too much into your hope into FMS IO and get the problems as the US economy now, the liquidity crisis, in another word, the cash flow crisis.
5. The liquidity problems are those all of option holders who could not exercise their options.
6. All in all, if the risk to lose all is unaffordable, you put youself at the cliff and if the wind bigger than your expectation, you fall down into the hell.
I try to avoid the paradox and put enough buffers to be far away from the cliff, which is not just risky to me but to my family. No point to do so.
I try not to expose myself to the risks to miss a life turning point chance. I don't leave any room to let me sell the part of shares to bet on it. I have decided to bet on it until last hole.
Now I only have a one way to the party or wait for another pennies to shoot up. The market is a place with too many good or bad unprecedented events. I am learning to get a life turning point from these unprecedented events.
What will I got? I don't know. I need some lucks with my risk capital.
What's for about my posts? Nothing, but share the views and sharp my mind-set. I have to take the responsibilities for my decision and lear to take the consequences for my decision. You have to be a master without blaming others, the people who work for your very hard, and the market. All of the problems are your problems if you lose too much.
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