SAE salinas energy limited

can somebody check my numbers

  1. 3,203 Posts.
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    Have just gone through the annual report and monthly revenue statements and have come up with the following numbers:

    Cash at end of financial year $6.1 mil Aust
    Revenue for June received mid July $4 mil (3.5US)
    July revenue $4.1m Aust
    Aug revenue $3.3m Aust

    Production July / Aug 57k b oil. Production for last 4 months of year expected to be 136k b oil (based on target of 287k b oil.

    Sept I am assuming same / slightly lower prod that Aug so lets say $3 mil Aust.

    So that makes it $6.1 mil + $4 mil + $4.1mil + $3.3 mil + $3 mil (sept) so in total we should have got in the bank around $20.5 mil.

    Less admin costs of $1.25m for the quarter, another $1.5 for the share buyback and then lets say $3 mil ($30US x 83k b oil) for production costs etc takes us to $20.5 - $1.5 - $1.25 - $3mil = $14.75 mil Aust

    So we should have $14.75 mil in the bank, less whatever we have done in the dev areas.

    So then we move onto tax losses. It looks like we have $58 mil in tax losses so at 30% they are worth $17.4 mil. We are a profitable company so these over the next few years will have a value to us. It may take us 3 - 4 years to use them up so lets value them at $12 mil due to value of money over time etc...

    So we now have $14.75 mil in cash and $12 mil in tax losses. So $26 mil.

    Now the company at 15c is worth $36 mil. So less the cash and tax credits we have a gap of about $10 mil. Based on 5 mil b oil in the ground this means that they are worth $2 a barrel...

    I know its simple maths with lots of factors not fully taken in but can somebody tell me what they are valuing the barrel oil at?

    Also one nice note about this low price - At the end of this year and at the 31/03/09 we have 11.6 mil options which are unlikely to be taken up. So at least existing shareholders are getting a tighter register!

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