It's an interesting question redux. You could well be right but the directors are clearly taking a conservative approach and that means it is sensible to assume in advance that Ma'aden may sell phosphate into the market as well as use it support the production of DAP. The Saudi phosphate reserves are very large and would certainly support both - perhaps Dr Reid has some useful information from his time at Ma'aden?
The value of taking this sort of conservative approach is that, assuming they will get the project up and running: i. they will be working to get things up quickly ie well before 4th quarter 2010 ii. projections will be done on conservative numbers therefore giving confidence of long term viability.
Because I am a holder by nature rather than a trader there's little value for me in taking a long term approach in companies that use optimistic projections rather than conservative ones. The company is being run in a frustratingly correct way (I wouldn't complain about some spruiking occasionally! lol ) but this will benefit shareholders in the long term IF they get the project up.
UCL Price at posting:
0.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
