Neo - I am familiar with the ICL study. For anyone bothered doing some calculations, it's saying 'unmitigated' death rate is ~0.97%. Of course, reality it's not unmitigated.
There is a TON of scaremongering going on.. people should just chill, and realise a few basic facts. First and foremost, in general only people with symptoms get tested. Think about that one. What would the population risk be dying of a lightning strike if we only counted people getting hit? Gee half of the worlds population would be in danger..
In reality, there are 100,000s being infected that are NOT counted for - in fact, last week I've had a runny nose, it might be covid (I hope it is, I WANT to get it). That's how it'll be for the VAST majority, and hence untested/unreported. The most reliable statistical source is South Korea, coz they tested more than others.. they have <1% death rate. In reality, even there there is likely a large number having covid but not tested, so I'm sticking to my original assessment of 0.5% mortality rate - heavily leaned towards people with predisposing conditions/70+/smokers.
Do you see this reported in the media? No, because they SELL on scare mongering, and that's properly what 99% of news are. Would be a great anti-smoking campaign though..
Now, many probably don't know this - but from the above statement should't leave people worried - the greater plan is for everyone (or as many as possible) to get infected. Just slowly enough so healthcare can properly care for the few percent that needs it.
From a investing perspective - i.e. when to use cash on the market - I've kept a close eye on Italy. I think cases have peaked there (need another day to confirm it), which puts a timer on UK/US peaks. UK is ~3-4 weeks behind, US another 2+ weeks. Up to each individual to chose when it's good to invest, but I'll be looking at a time point a couple of weeks before UK/US peaks.
There will be a hangover (weak financials), but I (and Goldman Sachs, investee call) expects a sharp recovery H2.
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