FMG other crap, page-460

I am just trying to educate myself about how to value a company, and their future prospects.
I understand that the low oil price means fmg costs go down, and the low aud amplifies their profits. FMG has surged against the tide and pumped up to $11.
But doesn’t the low oil price reflect a decrease in global activity, and therefore demand for steel? Isn’t steel demand falling with the European and US factories closed? There seems to be a consensus that a global recession / depression is certain, won’t this affect steel and iron ore prices?
Then there is the possibility of unexpected risks. 99% of the Chinese population is still susceptible to Covid-19. There is no treatment, there is no vaccine. They could relapse, like the rest of the world! I can’t really imagine a scenario where they don’t.
Sorry, my posts are a little risk averse at the moment. But these are difficult times