STO 0.97% $7.11 santos limited

Ann: Santos reports record annual free cash flow of $1.1 billion, page-120

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  1. Ya
    6,809 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 3829

    Their 2020 Budgeted capex is USD 950mil for base business & another 500mil for growth business (mainly Barossa etc). Total USD1450mil.
    Last year they spent around 1016mil (320mil for WA, NT/TL & rest for the East coast & PNG).

    It's only wk-2 since the price drop, so I'd expect them to closely monitor the pricing landscape & provide revised capex guidance estimates as in slowdown for 3-4 months & pickup activity from August onwards. They should look at atleast 20-25% cut-back. Jan-Feb should have been okay but their March revenue will take a hit & then the unknown is for Q2-2020.

    Sell-down of equity in Barossa is their nxt ticketed item, b'coz that's where bulk of their Capex over the next couple of years is tied up.

    Brent's up at USD 28/bbl this morning. 20yrs back, anyone in their office who mentioned 50/bbl was a lunatic leave alone 100/bbl. The industry has recalibrated itself to the upside over time by bringing newer fields onstream all on the back of higher Oil prices & adopting a brace position in post-plateau drop-offs (ie 2015). So the current Oil price drop in my view should trigger a wider disciplined cost-savings mechanism to help them navigate thro' the short-mid term turbulence.
 
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