ANZ 0.89% $29.60 anz group holdings limited

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  1. 139 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 6
    serious answer as is well known "past perfomance is not a garantee of future perfiormance."

    however clever analysis o past performance tells us things.

    While the number dead and known to be infected are low 9currently). They are obviously not a static thing as they have been growing.

    They have not been growing linearly nor is there any reason to think they will. Thus what happened is the last 8 days going from 100-400 cases is not expected to go on happening linearly (extra 300 cases per 8 days)

    What reasonably obviously is going to happen if nothing changes is the numbers will continue to double until the "food" not yet infected humans dries up. (grow exponentially up to the supply limit of uninfected humans)
    Thus in 10 doublings time (40-60 days we may well have 2^10 times as many cases (1000x) and that going to start to hurt medically and in terms of lives.

    By then some serious responses that will hurt economically for as long as they are in force will happen. (as at that time they will be a proportionate response)
    The purpose of those responses you may not currently be able to conceive the need for is to "flatten the curve" so as to minimize deaths and total economic damage/disruption.

    "I genuinely would like to hear a response back to this if you have the time. You wrote "we have a serious virus"."

    So yes that is how so it is a serious virus

 
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