I’ve revised my valuation and will ask CFO Paul Ravlich whether based on disclosed info the assumptions are reasonable. Composite of 2 methodologies gives a $3.24 valuation.
ZNO FY2021
2 Valuation methodologies: Valuation assuming 60% of production sold at $20 per litre revenue with 67% gross margin Production 30000 litres x 250 days = 7.5M paAssume 60% sold 4.5M litres pa at $20 NZ$90M annual revenueGross margin 67% Gross profit $60MAdmin costs $6.4MCost of goods unsold $6M28% Company taxNPAT $34.4MEPS 34.4M/168.3m shares = 20 cents EPS
PE 18
Value $3.60
Second methodology
Valuation assuming modest increase in currently disclosed monthly salesOnline Revenue $175000 x 360 =$63M + $12m distribution agreements = $75MGross Profit $52.5M @ 67% gross marginAdmin costs $6.4Cost of goods unsold $6MPre-tax profit: $46.1M NZ 28% company tax rateNPAT $27.2MEPS 27/168.3 = 16 cents EPS PE 18
Value $2.88
Composite valuation: $3.24
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